Problem: Insurmountable Capacity Constraints

Nothing will curb your growth faster than inadequate capacity. Lack of capacity will cause your referral sources to dry up, patients to become dissatisfied, and operational costs to climb. Your most favorable customers – whether physicians or patients – will defect to other organizations that provide easier access and are more convenient. Eventually, capacity constraints will cause your payer mix to permanently shift, as those patients who have a choice of providers migrate to competitors, leaving you with the least profitable – and sometimes most unprofitable – patients.

Unless you are able to forecast capacity at least 12 months into the future, and then model short- and long-term scenarios based on licensed beds, average length of stay, changes in growth rates, and various occupancy rate thresholds, your ability to develop capacity contingencies while addressing near-term pressures are non-existent. And failure to stay ahead of the capacity curve will stifle growth, create patient flow bottlenecks, drive inefficiencies, and negatively impact your bottom line.

Solution: Monthly Capacity Forecasting

To ensure that you have ample time to plan for and respond to future capacity constraints, strategicplanningMD has developed a monthly predictive model that provides you with a rolling, two-year capacity forecast, by bed type, by DRG. The forecast is updated monthly, based on most recent volume data, and includes the following:

  • Analysis of patient-level data, by patient type and diagnosis.
  • Computation of seasonality indexes for use in long-range forecasting.
  • Growth trend analysis, adjusted for variation in monthly seasonality.
  • Modeling of changes in historical growth trends.
  • Impact analysis for various length-of-stay thresholds.
  • Evaluation of opportunities for and impact of reallocating beds.
  • Financial analysis of lost revenue as a result of capacity issues.
  • Return-on-investment analysis for capacity planning initiatives.

Once implemented, our capacity forecasts will alert you to opportunities, issues, and constraints long before they occur. By keeping one eye on the present and another looking two years into the future, you will be able implement strategies today that will prevent capacity constraints tomorrow.

If you want to ensure that you can respond to future capacity needs, then call us at 800-535-1559. We will show you the possibilities for overcoming capacity constraints through monthly forecasting.